Bing Predicts Misses in NFL Week 11; Looking Ahead to Week 12

Note: This post is for the 2014 season. Click here to see the Week 11 results and Week 12 preview for 2015.

Bing Predicts just had its worst NFL performance since Week 4. With an 8-6 record during Week 11, the search engine looked vulnerable and missed on several big games. Still, Bing looks good overall on the season with a 105-56 record, putting it well above the goal of “getting the majority of the games” correct.

Bing Predicts Week 11 Recap

Bing’s reliance on the home team proved costly this week. The search engine was only 6-5 when siding with home field advantage, compared to 73-36 on the season. At least one of these picks seemed ill-advised from the start: Bing favored the Saints in New Orleans with a 72.9% chance over the Bengals. The search engine also favored these home-team losers this past week:

  • Colts (lost by 22 to the Patriots)
  • Redskins (lost by 20 to the Buccaneers)
  • Panthers (lost by 2 to the Falcons)
  • Browns (lost by 16 to the Texans)

We can probably forgive Bing for picking the Broncos over the Rams with a 77.8% chance. After all, how many people honestly thought the Rams would hold Peyton Manning and the Broncos to a single touchdown? (Question of the day: Does the fact that the Rams have beaten the Seahawks and the Broncos make them the best team in the NFL?)

Bing’s Favorite (and Least Favorite) Teams

Bing Predicts certainly has its favorites. Last week, the search engine surprised us all by picking against the Seahawks for the first time all season. This proved a smart move by Bing, with the Seahawks falling to the Chiefs.

Seattle isn’t the only team Bing seems to really like. For the most part, the prediction engine’s choices seem obvious, but there’s at least one oddity present on its list of favorites. Here are Bing’s top teams (with the number of times it has predicted each team to win):

Colts (10)
Broncos (10)
Seahawks (10)
Saints (9)
Steelers (9)
Patriots (8)
Lions (8)
Chargers (8)
49ers (8)

Two things should jump out immediately. First, you’ll notice the absence of the Cardinals, who currently have the best record in the NFL at 9-1 (Bing has predicted them to win 7 times). Second, you might scratch your head at seeing the Saints on there. At 4-6, the Saints are far from one of the best teams in the league. Of Bing’s top 9 teams, only 2 appear in the top 7 of the NFL Power Rankings (Patriots and Broncos).

Along with Bing’s strong loyalties come strong opposition. Here are Bing’s least favorite teams:

Jaguars (0)
Raiders (1)
Giants (1)
Vikings (1)
Rams (1)
Dolphins (2)
Titans (2)
Jets (3)

Bing is a little better at picking the worst teams than the best. Of these 8 teams, only one has a winning record (Dolphins). 4 of the 5 teams at the bottom of the NFL appear on this list of Bing-hated teams. It’s no big surprise that Bing isn’t picking any of these teams to win in Week 12.

Bing Predicts Week 12 Preview

There are bound to be plenty of lopsided performances during Week 12, but there are also a couple key matchups (including Seahawks-Cardinals and Patriots-Lions). Bing is going with the home team in 10 of 15 games this week. Update: Bing switched two of its picks on Wednesday night and is now siding with the home team in 12 of 15 games.  Bing is now going with the Falcons over the Browns and the Texans over the Bengals. Here are the updated picks:

bing week 12 updated

The prediction engine is also demonstrating a new level of confidence in Week 12. For the first time ever, Bing has 3 games listed with a chance above 80%, including an 86.4% chance of a Colts win over the Jaguars. The other 80%+ games are the Chiefs over the Raiders and the Eagles over the Titans. None of these picks are surprises at all, but the Raiders have to win eventually, right?

Here is a full breakdown of Bing’s chances this week (along with Bing’s record for each range this season):

  • 50-59.9% - 2 games (33-30)
  • 60-69.9% - 6 games (31-13)
  • 70-79.9% - 4 games (35-11)
  • 80%+ - 3 games (6-2)

Note that Bing is at its best when predicting games with a 70-79.9% chance. Still, if you had to put your money on Bing this week, I’d go with those 3 games at 80%+.

How do I think Bing will do? Well, my own Predicting Bing Predicts formula failed me last week, but I’m not giving up on it yet. Bing has a 57% chance of going 10-5 or better in Week 12.

First Scribe is now Perrill Why the change?